The Realtors Association of Hamilton Burlington has posted the June statistics and it all depends on how you look at the numbers.
Many of the statistics are based on a 10yr average which is great, if the 10yr average was in-line with a “normal” market, which has not been the case. Many articles are coming out now with click-bait style headlines, and dire statistics. What is the truth?
Let’s make sense of it all
Sales are trending downwards. New listings are trending upwards.
THIS IS GOOD. These trends, if they continue, will bring the market inventory back into a statistically healthy range. This means increased choice for Buyers, less multiple offer scenarios, and negotiable prices.
Prices have dropped compared to the past few months.
THIS IS TRUE… BUT… I struggle with this statement and these statistics. This is what I call “selective statistics” These numbers are based on the inflated sales prices experienced over the past few months. The market at that time could produce a range of $100,000 in some cases for the same house on any given day. That is hardly a good baseline to determine a market value drop. Or you could base it on the list prices, but those were inconsistent and undervalued at times to drive up the number of offers received on any given day. Both of those numbers don’t provide enough consistency to make an accurate number on overall market value decreases.
I like Facts
The prices are down compared to last month– YES AND THAT SHOULD BE EXPECTED. They are also up year over year. Just over 9% for freeholds, and just over 18% for condominiums – which is very positive.
The Multiple offers are all but gone – YES and the sale prices have decreased just slightly more than the same percentage that multiple offers inflated the sale prices.
Listing prices have remained relatively unchanged, and when properly listed, homes are selling quickly. This means you must show value to the Buyer in comparison to the market inventory to sell – THIS IS GOOD!
My outlook remains consistent, and I foresee market value stabilization by September as a baseline of value finally settles in August. The steep new listings inventory statistics will continue to outpace sales until consumer confidence returns. Sales will, from a historical and statistical standpoint, continue to be healthy through July **which is one of the slowest months of the year for sales activity**. The August statistics will show us our baseline market moving into the fall season.